How Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning the Ukraine Conflict
Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump informed reporters at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Donald Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks postponed
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs White House without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's efforts to broker an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for Witkoff and his team may be difficult to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Reduced Influence
Per the lead negotiator, the key to unlocking a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into making a deal.
The US president gained from a history of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with special sway over the nation's head.
Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.
In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.
The US leader has threatened to enact new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that doing so could disrupt the global economy and intensify the conflict.
Meanwhile, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
The president often boasts about his skill to meet and hammer out agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may in fact be using the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in direct negotiations - as a method of influencing him.
In July, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would approve on legislative penalties backed by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.
Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia phoned the US president who then touted the possible meeting in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.
"You know, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the sequence of events.
"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – including territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along current battle lines – something Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign previously, Trump promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since discarded that commitment, admitting that ending the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, give up the fight.