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PHEVs produce almost 5x greater planet-heating emissions than official data show, as per a recent analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Actual CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs emit just 19% less CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, according to analysis conducted by a non-profit organization. That contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which suggested a three-quarters reduction in emissions.

Analysts examined information from in-vehicle fuel consumption meters of 800,000 cars sold in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than lab figures, increased from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Actual emissions are increasing, while lab-reported emissions are falling,” said a lead analyst participating in the report. “That discrepancy is growing and poses a serious problem. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as petrol vehicles.”

Primary Factors Behind the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed the majority of the difference to inflated estimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of kilometers driven in electric mode relative to overall distance. The team determined that just 27% of driving was done in EV mode, while lab assumptions suggested 84%.

Additionally, when running in electric mode, emission levels were significantly higher than lab projections. That occurred because EV motors were insufficiently powerful sufficient to operate independently, leading to engines burning fossil fuels for nearly one-third of the distance covered in EV mode.

Policy and Economic Consequences

According to estimates, the lowballing of PHEV emissions allowed four major carmaker companies to escape more than €5bn in fines from 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing adherence with EU fleet-average CO₂ standards.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs could pay approximately €500 more per year in operating expenses than would be estimated under lab conditions.

“The strong statements that manufacturers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are obviously way off the truth,” commented a transport expert. “Consumers are being misled into believing that by buying a PHEV, they are benefiting the environment and saving money. Actually, PHEVs are little improved than regular gas and diesel cars in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ production, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid cars have lately been drawn again into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the European Union to relax CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new internal combustion vehicles in 2035 has faced intense pressure from the car sector and opposition from member states with significant car industries.

Several high-level politicians have proposed plug-in hybrids as a potential “flexibility” solution to introduce in the legislation.

One external energy economics expert, who was unaffiliated with the research, called the analysis a “very useful addition” after a long period in which parts of the car industry claimed there was insufficient information to properly assess real-world emissions.

“The results show, beyond any doubt, that the gap between official and real-world PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much larger than for gasoline or diesel cars,” the expert stated. “Any regulatory changes concerning PHEVs should be made with extreme caution and considering this data.”