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Increasing worries exist about the potential of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa countries, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as aggressive discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a fierce verbal exchange.

The Ethiopian leader initially stated publicly in the previous year that his government's maritime access was an crucial concern, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Ties between the two countries have often been tense. Following a prolonged battle for independence, the Eritrean state, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopian rule in the early 1990s, leaving it landlocked.

Five years later, a military clash broke out in which more than 100,000 people died.

Recent Remarks from Ethiopia's Officials

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated sovereignty of Eritrean coastal city of Assab – about 60km from the boundary - and suggested the intention to seize it militarily.

Recently, Abiy said the country's "mistake" of being denied passage to the Red Sea as a result of Eritrea's separation would be "corrected soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, retired Gen Bacha Debele, said that Assab was "belonging to Ethiopia" and would be given back "through military action".

Eritrean Response to the Statements

Despite continuous threats from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been restricted to short statements on X from Information Minister the minister.

Officials have denied Ethiopia's demand for maritime entry calling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a strategy of reclaiming former lands.

The information ministry alerted on 16 September that attempts to justify "flagrant aggression" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Security Preparations on the Ground

So far, there are little evidence of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nonetheless, in the country, national TV has shown training completions of numerous trainees at different defense facilities.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, the officer, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "reliable position" as "numerous of youths" were joining it, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Historical Roots of the Tension

For more than half a century from the late 19th century, Eritrea was administered by Italian rulers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the British administration before becoming a associated territory of Ethiopia.

Yet in 1962 the Ethiopian emperor ended this system and the region became totally absorbed into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year armed struggle ensued, ending with the government's loss in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by voters in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Ethiopia's capital and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was incompletely executed, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This ended in 2018, when Abiy made overtures to Eritrea's leader Isaias Afwerki. The both leaders agreed to a announcement that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that won Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's previous internal conflict in the northern region.

But relations have since broken down again.