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The Ashes may offer one cause for celebration, but this contest will also witness the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. New boy Jake Weatherald had his thirty-first birthday a day before the team was announced. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day before the Perth Test. Beau Webster turns 32 just ahead of Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood turns 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 before January is out.

Older Squad Fascination Builds

For a couple of years there has been mounting fascination with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player in a Test side being above thirty, aside from novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it wasn't necessarily true that greater age was a problem: a Test team featuring a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are deep into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into squads – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Imposed by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of similarly-aged players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would certainly be arriving the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, forced upon this Australian squad in the span of a few weeks. The spinal issue to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would likely only miss the opening match, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first bowling change behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be covered for by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has been sidelined with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a far greater change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that allows Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a weapon of attack. Missing both of them means a fundamental shift in the balance of the side. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Test matches entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Newcomer Confronts Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself isn't an overawed youth, but he might become an nervous thirty-one-year-old. A full stadium crowd, half of it English, for the opening Test of a deliriously anticipated Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles portray him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a sun lounger and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may cause. Who knows whether Cummins will be fit for the Brisbane Test, and able to continue after Brisbane, given how tricky stress fractures can be. It's uncertain how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries turning into extended absences.

Future Unclear

The latter part of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might see transition beginning much earlier than the stretch goal of 2027 in England. Not through Neser, who is seemingly next in line and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but after that with options unclear. Sean Abbott was in the initial squad, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm put back on, and this format is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, rolling round the corner, and the English team hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.